<\/p>\n

Jeff Bezons\u7ecf\u5e38\u88ab\u95ee\u5230\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u3001\u4e5f\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u90fd\u9700\u8981\u95ee\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u662f\uff1a\u201c\u672a\u676510\u5e74\u5c06\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u4ec0\u4e48\u53d8\u5316\uff1f\u201d<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u975e\u5e38\u6df1\u523b\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e16\u754c\u53d8\u5316\u592a\u5feb\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u73b0\u5728\u505a\u51fa\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u5c06\u51b3\u5b9a\u6211\u4eec\u672a\u6765\u7684\u547d\u8fd0\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5982\u679c\u51b3\u7b56\u5931\u8bef\uff0c\u4f60\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u53d1\u73b0\u81ea\u5df1\u6b63\u7ad9\u5728\u4e00\u8258\u6b63\u5728\u4e0b\u6c89\u7684\u8239\u4e0a\uff0c\u770b\u7740\u6240\u5728\u7684\u6574\u4e2a\u884c\u4e1a\u65e5\u6e10\u8d70\u5411\u6ca1\u843d\u548c\u8870\u8d25\uff0c\u773c\u7741\u7741\u770b\u7740\u81ea\u5df1\u82b1\u4e86\u6570\u5e74\u65f6\u95f4\u78e8\u7ec3\u548c\u5b66\u4e60\u7684\u6280\u80fd\u6162\u6162\u53d8\u5f97\u8fc7\u65f6\u3002\u4ece\u8bb0\u8005\u5230\u91d1\u878d\u5206\u6790\u5e08\uff0c\u6570\u4ee5\u767e\u4e07\u8ba1\u7684\u4eba\u53d1\u73b0\u4ed6\u4eec\u81ea\u5df1\u6b63\u5904\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u5883\u5730\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5982\u679c\u51b3\u7b56\u6b63\u786e\uff0c\u4f60\u5c31\u53ef\u80fd\u4e3a\u6b64\u7ec8\u8eab\u53d7\u76ca\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u9876\u5c16\u7684\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7a0b\u5e8f\u5458\u53d1\u73b0\u4ed6\u4eec\u5c31\u50cf\u7f8e\u56fd\u6a44\u6984\u7403\u8054\u76df\u7684\u8d85\u7ea7\u660e\u661f\u4e00\u6837\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7a0b\u5e8f\u5458\u7a81\u7136\u53d1\u73b0\u4ed6\u4eec\u82b1\u4e86\u6570\u5e74\u65f6\u95f4\u5b66\u4e60\u548c\u79ef\u7d2f\u7684\u6280\u80fd\u5df2\u7ecf\u53d8\u5f97\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9876\u7ea7\u7684\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7a0b\u5e8f\u5458\u548c\u6280\u80fd\u5df2\u7ecf\u8d2c\u503c\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e24\u7c7b\u4eba\u53ef\u80fd\u4e00\u6837\u806a\u660e\uff0c\u5728\u5b66\u4e60\u4e0a\u82b1\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u4e5f\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u9009\u62e9\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u9886\u57df\u4f7f\u5f97\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u672a\u6765\u5c06\u62e5\u6709\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u4eba\u751f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u51e0\u5e74\u65f6\u95f4\u91cc\uff0c\u6211\u9047\u5230\u4e86\u4e00\u7fa4\u4eba\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u6574\u4e2a\u804c\u4e1a\u751f\u6daf\u90fd\u5728\u4e13\u4e1a\u5730\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765<\/a><\/span>\uff0c\u5e76\u6839\u636e\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u8fdb\u884c\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u5728\u6570\u5341\u5e74\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4ece\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u4e2d\u83b7\u5229\u9887\u4e30\u3002\u6211\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5171\u540c\u70b9\u662f\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u6295\u8d44\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u91d1\u94b1\u548c\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u5b8c\u5168\u8fdd\u80cc\u5e38\u4eba\u76f4\u89c9\u548c\u4f20\u7edf\u89c2\u70b9\u7684\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u5c06\u5206\u4eab\u4f60\u5982\u4f55\u80fd\u591f\u590d\u5236\u5305\u62ecJeff Bezos\u3001Ray Dalio\u3001Howard Marks\u548cWarren Buffett\u8fd9\u6837\u767d\u624b\u8d77\u5bb6\u7684\u4ebf\u4e07\u5bcc\u7fc1\u4f01\u4e1a\u5bb6\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u4eba<\/a><\/span>\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u201c\u8d62\u5f97\u201d\u5c5e\u4e8e\u4f60\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u672a\u6765\u3002<\/p>\n

\u201c\u672a\u6765\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u4ec0\u4e48\u53d8\u5316\uff1f\u201d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u95ee\u9898<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u6b63\u5982\u6211\u5728\u4e0a\u6587\u4e2d\u6240\u8bf4\u7684\uff0cJeff Bezos\u7ecf\u5e38\u88ab\u95ee\u5230\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff1a\u201c\u672a\u676510\u5e74\u5c06\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u4ec0\u4e48\u53d8\u5316\uff1f\u201d \u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u5bf9\u6b64\uff0cBezos\u662f\u8fd9\u4e48\u8bf4\u7684\uff1a<\/p>\n

\u201c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f88\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f88\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u51e0\u4e4e\u4ece\u672a\u6709\u4eba\u95ee\u8fc7\u6211\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff1a\u2018\u5728\u672a\u6765\u768410\u5e74\u91cc\uff0c\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e1c\u897f\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6539\u53d8\uff1f\u2019 \u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u6bd4\u2018\u672a\u676510\u5e74\u5c06\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u4ec0\u4e48\u53d8\u5316\uff1f\u2019\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u66f4\u52a0\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u56f4\u7ed5\u90a3\u4e9b\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u90fd\u6bd4\u8f83\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u5236\u5b9a\u4e00\u4e2a\u5546\u4e1a\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

Bezos\u63a5\u7740\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86Amazon\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u4ece\u5173\u6ce8\u2018\u5728\u672a\u6765\u768410\u5e74\u91cc\uff0c\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e1c\u897f\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6539\u53d8\uff1f\u2019\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u4e2d\u83b7\u5229\u7684\uff1a<\/p>\n

\u201c\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u96f6\u552e\u4e1a\u52a1\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u90fd\u77e5\u9053\u6240\u6709\u987e\u5ba2\u90fd\u5e0c\u671b\u5546\u54c1\u4ef7\u683c\u8d8a\u4f4e\u8d8a\u597d\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u6211\u77e5\u9053\u672a\u676510\u5e74\u5185\u90fd\u4f1a\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u987e\u5ba2\u5e0c\u671b\u80fd\u5feb\u901f\u6536\u5230\u4ed6\u4eec\u8d2d\u4e70\u7684\u5546\u54c1\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5e0c\u671b\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u8d2d\u4e70\u9009\u62e9\u3002\u5f88\u96be\u60f3\u8c6110\u5e74\u540e\uff0c\u987e\u5ba2\u4f1a\u8fd9\u6837\u8bf4\uff1a\u2018Jeff\uff0c\u6211\u559c\u6b22Amazon\uff0c\u6211\u5e0c\u671bAmazon\u4e0a\u5546\u54c1\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u8d35\u4e00\u70b9\u3002\u2019 \u6216\u8005\u8bf4\uff1a\u2018\u6211\u5f88\u559c\u6b22Amazon\u3001\u6211\u5e0c\u671b\u4f60\u4eec\u9001\u8d27\u9001\u6162\u4e00\u70b9\u3002\u2019 \u8fd9\u662f\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898\u4e0a\u6295\u5165\u66f4\u591a\u7cbe\u529b\uff0c\u628a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u987e\u5ba2\u572810\u5e74\u540e\u4f9d\u7136\u5e0c\u671b\u89e3\u51b3\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u90fd\u89e3\u51b3\u4e86\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u77e5\u9053\u6211\u4eec\u4eca\u5929\u6295\u5165\u7684\u7cbe\u529b\u572810\u5e74\u540e\u4f9d\u7136\u80fd\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u987e\u5ba2\u4ece\u4e2d\u53d7\u76ca\u3002\u5f53\u4f60\u77e5\u9053\u6709\u4e9b\u4e8b\u60c5\u5728\u672a\u6765\u5f88\u957f\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u90fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6539\u53d8\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u5c31\u503c\u5f97\u4f60\u5728\u4e0a\u9762\u6295\u5165\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u7cbe\u529b\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u6211\u4f9d\u7136\u8bb0\u5f97\u5f53\u6211\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u8bfb\u5230Bezos\u7684\u8fd9\u6bb5\u8bdd\u65f6\u8111\u6d77\u4e2d\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u3002\u8fd9\u6bb5\u8bdd\u65e2\u662f\u987a\u5e94\u76f4\u89c9\u7684\uff0c\u53c8\u662f\u8fdd\u80cc\u76f4\u89c9\u7684\u3002\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6211\u6697\u81ea\u5fc3\u60f3\uff1a\u201c\u8fd9\u6bb5\u8bdd\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u9053\u7406\u7684\uff01\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e0d\u628a\u91cd\u70b9\u653e\u5728\u4fdd\u8bc1\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u4e0a\uff0c\u800c\u8981\u53bb\u6295\u673a\u731c\u6d4b\u5462\uff1f\u201d\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0cBezos\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u662f\u8fdd\u80cc\u4f20\u7edf\u667a\u6167\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u4e0e\u4f20\u7edf\u89c2\u70b9\u4e0d\u7b26\u7684\u3002\u89c4\u5212\u672a\u6765\u7684\u5178\u578b\u65b9\u6cd5\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4e8e\u5728\u8f6e\u76d8\u8d4c\u4e0a\u8d4c\u535a\uff1a<\/p>\n

\uff081\uff09\u627e\u5230\u4f60\u8ba4\u4e3a\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u884c\u4e1a\u9886\u57df\uff08\u4f8b\u5982:\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u3001\u865a\u62df\u73b0\u5b9e\u3001\u533a\u5757\u94fe\u3001\u5408\u6210\u751f\u7269\u5b66\u3001\u7eb3\u7c73\u6280\u672f)\u3002<\/p>\n

\uff082\uff09\u9009\u62e9\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u8fdb\u884c\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u5e76\u6210\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u7684\u4e13\u5bb6\u3002<\/p>\n

\uff083\uff09\u5e0c\u671b\u8fd9\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u80fd\u591f\u53d1\u5c55\u58ee\u5927\uff0c\u5e0c\u671b\u4f60\u662f\u5728\u5408\u9002\u65f6\u673a\u8fdb\u5165\u8fd9\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u4f60\u5c31\u80fd\u4ece\u4e2d\u83b7\u5229\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4f20\u7edf\u65b9\u6cd5\u6709\u65f6\u4f1a\u8d77\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u4f46\u4f9d\u9760\u4f20\u7edf\u65b9\u6cd5\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u53ef\u9760\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u6211\u4eca\u540e\u4e0d\u4f1a\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u7684\u5b69\u5b50\u8bf4\u4ec0\u4e48\u90fd\u8981\u4f9d\u9760\u4f20\u7edf\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002Kauffman Foundation 2012\u5e74\u505a\u7684\u4e00\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff1a\u201c\u98ce\u9669\u6295\u8d44\u884c\u4e1a\u8fd8\u6ca1\u6709\u6536\u56de\u81ea1997\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u3002\u201d \u5982\u679c\u4f60\u6295\u4e2d\u4e86Uber\u3001Amazon\u3001Google\u548cFacebook\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5b83\u4eec\u7ed9\u4f60\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u56de\u62a5\u7387\u5c06\u4f1a\u662f\u60ca\u4eba\u7684\u3002\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u4f60\u6210\u4e3a\u4e00\u5bb6\u4ef7\u503c10\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\u3001\u521b\u529e\u8005\u6216\u505a\u65e9\u671f\u5458\u5de5\u7684\u51e0\u7387\u5c31\u50cf\u5f69\u7968\u4e2d\u5956\u7684\u51e0\u7387\u4e00\u6837\u3002\u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u5728\u6240\u6709\u7684\u521b\u4e1a\u516c\u53f8\u4e2d\uff0c\u53ea\u6709200\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u4f30\u503c\u4f30\u503c\u8fbe\u5230\u4e8610\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u4e0a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e13\u6ce8\u70ed\u70b9\u8d8b\u52bf\u65e0\u6cd5\u7ed9\u4f60\u5e26\u6765\u4f60\u60f3\u8981\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n

\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765\u662f\u884c\u4e0d\u901a\u7684\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201c\u4f60\u65e0\u6cd5\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u4f60\u53ea\u80fd\u51c6\u5907\u3002\u201d \u2014\u2014Howard Marks<\/p>\n

\u767d\u624b\u8d77\u5bb6\u7684\u4ebf\u4e07\u5bcc\u7fc1\u3001\u4f01\u4e1a\u5bb6\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u4ebaHoward Marks\u7ba1\u7406\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u673a\u6784Oaktree Capital\u7ba1\u7406\u77401000\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u57fa\u91d1\uff0cOaktree\u4e5f\u662f\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u6700\u5927\u7684\u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d1\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u6bcf\u4e00\u5e74\uff0cMarks\u90fd\u4f1a\u7ed9\u516c\u53f8\u80a1\u4e1c\u5199\u4e00\u5c01\u5e7f\u4e3a\u6d41\u4f20\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u5907\u5fd8\u5f55\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4efd\u5907\u5fd8\u5f55\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u4eec\u4e3a\u4f55\u6295\u8d44\u672a\u6765\u8d8b\u52bf\u5e76\u975e\u603b\u662f\u660e\u667a\u7684\u9009\u62e9\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n

\uff081\uff09\u90a3\u4e9b\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u5f88\u6709\u628a\u63e1\u7684\u8d4c\u6ce8\u5c06\u4f1a\u9762\u4e34\u6700\u6fc0\u70c8\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f1a\u51cf\u5c11\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u5229\u6da6\u3002<\/strong>Marks\u5199\u9053\uff1a\u201c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4f1f\u5927\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u90fd\u662f\u5728\u4e0d\u8212\u9002\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u5f00\u59cb\u7684\u3002\u8ba9\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u90fd\u89c9\u5f97\u4e0d\u9519\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u5bf9\u8c61\uff08\u90a3\u4e9b\u57fa\u672c\u524d\u63d0\u88ab\u5927\u5bb6\u5e7f\u6cdb\u63a5\u53d7\uff0c\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u4e5f\u975e\u5e38\u4e0d\u9519\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u7684\u524d\u666f\u4e5f\u975e\u5e38\u53ef\u89c2\uff09\u662f\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u4ee5\u4f4e\u5ec9\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u6295\u8d44\u5230\u7684\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u901a\u5e38\u80fd\u591f\u5728\u4e00\u4e9b\u6709\u4e89\u8bae\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u5bf9\u8c61\u4e2d\u627e\u5230\u4fbf\u5b9c\u8d27\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u5bf9\u8c61\u5f88\u60b2\u89c2\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u6295\u8d44\u5bf9\u8c61\u8fd1\u6765\u8868\u73b0\u4e0d\u4f73\u3002<\/p>\n

\uff082\uff09\u8fd0\u6c14\u548c\u968f\u673a\u6027\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/strong>Marks\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u2018\u6b63\u786e\u2019\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u4e5f\u8fdc\u4e0d\u80fd\u4fdd\u8bc1\u80fd\u591f\u83b7\u5f97\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6bcf\u4e2a\u51b3\u7b56\u90fd\u9700\u8981\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u8fdb\u884c\u8bbe\u60f3\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u5408\u7406\u7684\u8bbe\u60f3\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u968f\u673a\u6027\u6240\u963b\u788d\u3002\u6709\u4e9b\u968f\u673a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u7684\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u5b8c\u5168\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u6e38\u620f\u89c4\u5219\u3002Nassim Taleb\uff08\u300a\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u300b\u7684\u4f5c\u8005\uff09\u79f0\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e3a\u201c\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u201d\uff082008\u5e74\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f88\u597d\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\uff083\uff09\u8981\u60f3\u505a\u5230\u4e00\u76f4\u6b63\u786e\uff0c\u8fd9\u6bd4\u4f60\u60f3\u8c61\u5f97\u8981\u56f0\u96be\u5f97\u591a\u3002<\/strong>\u201c\u8981\u60f3\u5728\u505a\u6240\u6709\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u90fd\u80fd\u6b63\u786e\u5730\u5c06\u6240\u6709\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u4e8b\u5b9e\u548c\u6ce8\u610f\u4e8b\u9879\u90fd\u8003\u8651\u5728\u5185\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u56f0\u96be\u7684\u3002\u201dMarks\u66fe\u8fd9\u6837\u8c26\u865a\u5730\u8bf4\u9053\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\u8fd9\u662f\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u5f88\u591a\u6700\u6210\u529f\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u7279\u5f81\u3002\u767d\u624b\u8d77\u5bb6\u7684\u4ebf\u4e07\u5bcc\u7fc1Ray Dalio\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u6700\u5927\u7684\u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d1Bridgewater Associates\u7684\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\uff0c\u4ed6\u5728\u4ed6\u7684\u65b0\u4e66\u7684\u5f00\u7bc7\u90e8\u5206\u5c31\u5c06\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u96be\u5ea6\u8868\u8fbe\u5730\u6dcb\u6f13\u5c3d\u81f4\uff1a\u5728\u6211\u5f00\u59cb\u544a\u8bc9\u4f60\u6211\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u6211\u60f3\u8981\u8bc1\u660e\u6211\u4e00\u4e2a\u2018\u611a\u8822\u7684\u7b28\u86cb\u2019\uff0c\u5728\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u5bf9\u6211\u9700\u8981\u77e5\u9053\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u5176\u5b9e\u5e76\u4e0d\u4e86\u89e3\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\uff084\uff09\u5373\u4f7f\u4f60\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u662f\u6b63\u786e\u7684\uff0c\u4f60\u4e5f\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u9009\u9519\u65f6\u673a\u3002<\/strong>Marks\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u201c\u5373\u4fbf\u6709\u5145\u5206\u6839\u636e\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u6700\u7ec8\u88ab\u8bc1\u660e\u662f\u6b63\u786e\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u53ef\u80fd\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5f88\u5feb\u5c31\u80fd\u6267\u884c\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u672a\u6765\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u662f\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u65f6\u673a\u662f\u6613\u53d8\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u91cc\u9762\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c\u9009\u62e9\u4e86\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u65f6\u673a\u7b49\u540c\u4e8e\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u9886\u57df\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bc1\u660eMarks\u8bba\u70b9\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f88\u597d\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002\u867d\u7136\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u73b0\u5728\u542c\u8d77\u6765\u50cf\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u8d4c\u6ce8\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u5e76\u4e0d\u603b\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\u3002\u57281974\u5e74-1980\u548c1987-1993\u5e74\u8fd9\u4e24\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u91cc\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u201c\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7684\u5bd2\u51ac\u201d\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e24\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u91cc\uff0c\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u88ab\u8fc7\u5206\u5938\u5927\u4e86\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5931\u53bb\u4e86\u4fe1\u8a89\u548c\u8d44\u91d1\u3002\u624d\u534e\u6a2a\u6ea2\u7684\u5e74\u8f7b\u7a0b\u5e8f\u5458\u6210\u7fa4\u7ed3\u961f\u5730\u79bb\u5f00\u8fd9\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u91cc\u5f88\u591a\u6700\u6210\u529f\u7684\u4eba\u90fd\u662f\u90a3\u4e9b\u71ac\u8fc7\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e2a\u201c\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u5bd2\u51ac\u201d\u5e76\u7ee7\u7eed\u4e13\u6ce8\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u8fd9\u4e48\u505a\u5728\u5f53\u65f6\u770b\u6765\u5e76\u975e\u660e\u667a\u4e4b\u4e3e\u3002\u5982\u4eca\uff0c\u8981\u60f3\u8fdb\u5165\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5c31\u5fc5\u987b\u4e0e\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u6700\u806a\u660e\u90a3\u7fa4\u4eba\u8fdb\u884c\u7ade\u4e89\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6211\u8fd9\u91cc\u8981\u8868\u8fbe\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u662f\uff0c\u8981\u9009\u62e9\u5728\u672a\u676520\u5e74\u65f6\u95f4\u91cc\u54ea\u4e2a\u884c\u4e1a\u5c06\u4f1a\u6210\u4e3a\u70ed\u95e8\u884c\u4e1a\uff0c\u8fd9\u5e76\u4e0d\u50cf\u542c\u8d77\u6765\u90a3\u4e48\u7b80\u5355\u3002\u6309\u7167\u7b2c\u4e09\u3001\u7b2c\u56db\u548c\u7b2c\u4e94\u7684\u987a\u5e8f\u6765\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765\u7684\u70ed\u95e8\u884c\u4e1a\u66f4\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u4e8b\u3002\u572820\u4e16\u7eaa\u65e9\u671f\uff0c\u8c01\u4f1a\u9884\u8a00\u5230\u6c7d\u8f66\u7684\u53d1\u660e\u6700\u7ec8\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u90ca\u533a\u7684\u4e0d\u65ad\u8513\u5ef6\u6269\u5f20\u548c\u65c5\u9986\u884c\u4e1a\uff08\u56e0\u4e3a\u5dde\u9645\u9ad8\u901f\u516c\u8def\u7cfb\u7edf\uff09\u4fdd\u9669\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\u5462\uff01<\/p>\n

\u8bf7\u6ce8\u610f\uff0c\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u6210\u529f\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\u4e4b\u4e00Warren Buffett\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u4e0d\u6295\u8d44\u90a3\u4e9b\u5f53\u4e0b\u6700\u70ed\u95e8\u7684\u79d1\u6280\u521b\u4e1a\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u6574\u4e2a\u6295\u8d44\u751f\u6daf\u90fd\u5728\u5bfb\u627e\u90a3\u4e9b\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6539\u53d8\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u662f\u53d8\u5316\u975e\u5e38\u7f13\u6162\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0cBuffett\u80fd\u591f\u957f\u671f\u6295\u8d44\u4e00\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u3002\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u4ed6\u4e00\u76f4\u6301\u6709Geico\u3001\u53ef\u53e3\u53ef\u4e50\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u8fd0\u901a\u7b49\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765\u4e0d\u662f\u7b54\u6848\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4f60\u8be5\u600e\u4e48\u529e\u5462?<\/p>\n

\u6811\u5e72\u6280\u672f<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201c\u4e0e\u5176\u9884\u6d4b\u98ce\u96e8\uff0c\u4e0d\u5982\u6253\u9020\u65b9\u821f\u3002\u201d\u2014\u2014Warren Buffett<\/p>\n

\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u3001Dalio\u3001Marks\u3001Bezos\u3001Taleb\u7b49\u6210\u529f\u4eba\u58eb\u91c7\u7528\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5171\u540c\u7684\u4e3b\u9898\uff1a\u5173\u6ce8\u90a3\u4e9b\u4e0d\u7ba1\u672a\u6765\u53d1\u751f\u4ec0\u4e48\u90fd\u4fdd\u8bc1\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u9886\u57df\u3002<\/p>\n

Bezos\u5728\u4e0a\u6587\u4e2d\u5df2\u7ecf\u8bf4\u8fc7\uff0c\u4e13\u6ce8\u4e8e\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u5ba2\u6237\u504f\u597d\u662f\u6253\u9020\u4e00\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u5f3a\u5927\u57fa\u57fa\u77f3\u3002\u6211\u518d\u66f4\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\uff1a\u4e13\u6ce8\u4e8e\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u662f\u6253\u9020\u4e00\u79cd\u751f\u6d3b\u7684\u5f3a\u6709\u529b\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u6211\u5c06\u8fd9\u79cd\u6280\u5de7\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u6811\u5e72\u6280\u672f\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6709\u4e9b\u77e5\u8bc6\u5f62\u5f0f\u51fa\u73b0\u5f97\u5f88\u5feb\uff0c\u4f46\u5f88\u5feb\u5c31\u4f1a\u8fc7\u65f6\u3002\u5176\u4ed6\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u5728\u5f88\u957f\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u90fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u8fc7\u65f6\u3002\u4fe1\u606f\u548c\u77e5\u8bc6\u8fc7\u65f6\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u52a0\u5feb\u7684\uff1f\u6211\u5728\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\u8bf4\u8fc7\uff1a\u201c\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4e00\u9879\u5b66\u672f\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5173\u4e8e\u809d\u786c\u5316\u548c\u809d\u708e\u7684\u4e34\u5e8a\u77e5\u8bc6\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u7684\u8870\u53d8\u7387\u4e3a45\u5e74\u3002\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u548c\u4e00\u4f4d\u6ca1\u6709\u53ca\u65f6\u66f4\u65b0\u81ea\u5df1\u77e5\u8bc6\u768470\u5c81\u7684\u809d\u810f\u4e13\u5bb6\u4ea4\u8c08\uff0c\u4f60\u670950%\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4f1a\u5f97\u5230\u4e0d\u51c6\u786e\u7684\u574f\u6d88\u606f\u3002\u5de5\u7a0b\u5b66\u4f4d\u7684\u5bff\u547d\u4ece\u4ece1930\u5e74\u768435\u5e74\u5df2\u7ecf\u964d\u81f31960\u5e74\u7684\u5927\u7ea610\u5e74\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\uff08\u6765\u6e90\uff1aNew Scientist\uff09<\/p>\n

\u90a3\u4e9b\u5f88\u5feb\u5c31\u4f1a\u8fc7\u65f6\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u548c\u90a3\u4e9b\u6709\u6301\u4e45\u751f\u547d\u529b\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u533a\u522b\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n

\u4e00\u822c\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u201c\u8fc7\u6e21\u578b\u77e5\u8bc6\u201d\u6216\u5f88\u5feb\u5c31\u4f1a\u8fc7\u671f\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u662f\u90a3\u79cd\u5728\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u63d0\u4f9b\u6307\u5f15\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\uff08\u6bd4\u5982\u809d\u810f\u533b\u5b66\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e13\u4e1a\u9886\u57df\uff09\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u201c\u652f\u67f1\u578b\u77e5\u8bc6\u201d\u6216\u8005\u6709\u6301\u4e45\u751f\u547d\u529b\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u662f\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u57fa\u672c\u539f\u5219\u548c\u601d\u7ef4\u6a21\u578b<\/a><\/span>\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u57fa\u672c\u539f\u5219\u548c\u601d\u7ef4\u6a21\u578b\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u5f88\u591a\u60c5\u5f62\u4e2d\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u4e0d\u53ef\u9884\u89c1\u7684\u672a\u6765\u7684\u60c5\u5f62\u4e2d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6211\u89e3\u91ca\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u5728\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u60f3\u5230\u77e5\u8bc6\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4f1a\u4ece\u6c34\u5e73\u6a2a\u5411\u89d2\u5ea6\u601d\u8003\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5b66\u79d1\u6765\u89c2\u5bdf\u77e5\u8bc6\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u770b\u5f85\u77e5\u8bc6\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u662f\uff0c\u5f53\u4f60\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ef4\u5ea6\u4e0a\u770b\u4e8b\u7269\u65f6\uff0c\u4f60\u4f1a\u9519\u8fc7\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\uff1a<\/p>\n

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\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u90fd\u5ffd\u7565\u4e86\u77e5\u8bc6\u4e5f\u662f\u5782\u76f4\u7684\u3002\u6211\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\uff0c\u4f1f\u5927\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u5bb6\u548c\u5b9e\u5e72\u5bb6\u5c31\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\u770b\u5f85\u73b0\u5b9e\u7684\u3002\u6709\u66f4\u6df1\u5c42\u7684\u539f\u5219\u548c\u601d\u7ef4\u6a21\u578b\u5c06\u6211\u4eec\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u5b66\u79d1\u77e5\u8bc6\u8fde\u63a5\u8d77\u6765\u3002\u5982\u4e0b\u56fe\u6240\u793a\uff1a<\/p>\n

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\u5b83\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u6709\u4e00\u5c42\uff0c\u5b83\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u5c42\u3002\u5bf9\u6b64\uff0cElon Musk\u5728\u4e00\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\u66fe\u8fd9\u6837\u89e3\u91ca\u9053\uff1a\u201c\u5c06\u77e5\u8bc6\u770b\u4f5c\u4e00\u79cd\u8bed\u4e49\u6811\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u786e\u4fdd\u4f60\u9996\u5148\u7406\u89e3\u4e86\u57fa\u672c\u539f\u5219\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u5728\u7406\u89e3\u6811\u53f6\/\u7ec6\u8282\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u8981\u5148\u4e86\u89e3\u6811\u5e72\u548c\u5927\u6811\u679d\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u8bf4\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u6811\u5e72\u6216\u5927\u6811\u679d\uff0c\u6811\u53f6\u5c31\u65e0\u5904\u4f9d\u9644\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e0b\u9762\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5c06Musk\u9a6c\u65af\u514b\u7684\u8bed\u4e49\u6811\u7406\u8bba\u53ef\u89c6\u5316\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff1a<\/p>\n

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\uff083\uff09\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48\u4ee5\u53ca\u5b83\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4ec0\u4e48\u3002<\/strong>\u5c31\u50cf\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u9645\u8c61\u68cb\u4e13\u5bb6\u80fd\u591f\u63d0\u51fa\u63a8\u7b97\u51fa\u540e\u9762\u5f88\u591a\u6b65\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u601d\u7ef4\u6a21\u578b\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba9\u4f60\u628a\u6b63\u5728\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u4e0e\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u8054\u7cfb\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u4f60\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u505a\u51fa\u9002\u5f53\u5730\u53cd\u5e94\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u601d\u8003\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u957f\u8fdc\u3002<\/p>\n

\uff084\uff09\u964d\u4f4e\u6295\u8d44\u98ce\u9669<\/a><\/span>\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u5728\u90a3\u4e9b\u672a\u6765\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6210\u4e3a\u8d62\u5bb6\u7684\u9886\u57df\u5185\u6295\u8d44\u3002<\/strong>\u5728\u672c\u6587\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u5efa\u8bae\u4f60\u5b8c\u5168\u5ffd\u7565\u672a\u6765\u3002\u6211\u60f3\u8bf4\u7684\u662f\u4f60\u8981\u5e73\u8861\u4f60\u5bf9\u8d8b\u52bf\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u548c\u6c38\u8fdc\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6539\u53d8\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\uff1a\u6c38\u6052\u7684\u539f\u5219\u548c\u601d\u7ef4\u6a21\u578b\u3002Nassim Taleb\u662f\u4e00\u4f4d\u975e\u5e38\u6210\u529f\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u300a\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u300b\u3001\u300a\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u300b\u7b49\u4e66\u7684\u4f5c\u8005\u3002\u5728\u4ed6\u7684\u300a\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u300b\uff08 Antifragile\uff09\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ed6\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u8d44\u6e90\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06\u6536\u76ca\u56de\u62a5\u6700\u5927\u5316\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u80fd\u591f\u6d88\u9664\u635f\u5931\u3002\u4ed6\u5c06\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u6760\u94c3\u7b56\u7565\u201d\uff1a \u5373\u5bf9\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u6240\u6709\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u4ee5\u6760\u94c3\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\u5448\u73b0\u7684\u3002Taleb\u7528\u6760\u94c3\u5c06\u6781\u7aef\u60c5\u51b5\u5206\u9694\u5f00\uff0c\u6760\u94c3\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u6760\u8f74\uff0c\u4e24\u7aef\u52a0\u91cd\uff0c\u4e00\u9762\u662f\u6781\u7aef\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u538c\u6076\uff0c\u4e00\u9762\u662f\u6781\u7aef\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u504f\u597d\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u91c7\u53d6\u201c\u4e2d\u7b49\u7a0b\u5ea6\u201d\u6216\u6e29\u548c\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u6001\u5ea6\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4eba\u4eec\u4e00\u822c\u660e\u767d\u201c\u9ad8\u98ce\u9669\u201d\u548c\u201c\u96f6\u98ce\u9669\u201d\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4e2d\u7b49\u98ce\u9669\u5219\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u8ff7\u60d1\u6027\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u53d7\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u6d4b\u91cf\u8bef\u5dee\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u768490%\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u4ee5\u73b0\u91d1\u5f62\u5f0f\u6301\u6709\uff0c\u6216\u4ee5\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u201c\u4fdd\u503c\u8d27\u5e01\u201d\u50a8\u5b58\u8d77\u6765\uff08\u5047\u8bbe\u5254\u9664\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u5f71\u54cd\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u5269\u4e0b10%\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u5219\u6295\u8d44\u4e8e\u98ce\u9669\u5f88\u9ad8\u7684\u8bc1\u5238\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4f60\u7684\u635f\u5931\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u8d85\u8fc710%\uff0c\u800c\u4f60\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u662f\u6ca1\u6709\u4e0a\u9650\u7684\u3002\u5982\u679c\u67d0\u4e2a\u4eba\u5c06100%\u8d44\u91d1\u90fd\u6295\u5165\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u201c\u4e2d\u7b49\u201d\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u8bc1\u5238\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5b83\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u7531\u4e8e\u8ba1\u7b97\u8bef\u5dee\u800c\u627f\u53d7\u6bc1\u706d\u6027\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\uff08\u6765\u81eaNassim Taleb\uff09<\/p>\n

\u6811\u5e72\u6280\u672f\u7684\u8fd0\u884c\u539f\u7406\u548cTaleb\u7684\u6760\u94c3\u7b56\u7565\u662f\u4e00\u6837\u7684\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u65e0\u98ce\u9669\u77e5\u8bc6\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9650\u5236\u4e86\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u4e0b\u884c\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u7ed9\u4e86\u6211\u4eec\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u7075\u6d3b\u6027\u548c\u4fe1\u5fc3\uff0c\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u53ef\u80fd\u53d6\u5f97\u5de8\u5927\u6210\u529f\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u4e0a\u8fdb\u884c\u6295\u673a\u6027\u62bc\u6ce8\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u521b\u9020\u4e00\u4e2a\u5927\u5bb6\u60f3\u8981\u7684\u672a\u6765\uff0c\u5b66\u4e60\u5982\u4f55\u5e94\u7528\u6811\u5e72\u6280\u672f\u662f\u4efb\u4f55\u4eba\u90fd\u5e94\u8be5\u5b66\u4e60\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u6280\u80fd\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/p>\n

\u672c\u6587\u6765\u81eamedium.com\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n

GrowthHK\uff08Growth Hacker\uff09\uff1a\u53cc\u521b\u73af\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u521b\u4e1a\u8005\u9700\u8981\u5c06\u60f3\u6cd5\u843d\u5730\u4e3a\u4ea7\u54c1\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5e02\u573a\u9a8c\u8bc1\u51fa\u8be5\u5546\u4e1a\u6a21\u5f0f<\/a><\/span>\u7684\u53ef\u884c\u6027\uff0c\u5e76\u4ee5\u6b64\u5438\u5f15\u6295\u8d44\u52a0\u901f\u6e20\u9053\u6269\u5c55\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5b9e\u73b0\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u5927\u8303\u56f4\u63a8\u5e7f\uff1b\u589e\u957f\u662f\u521b\u6295\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\u5bf9\u5404\u9636\u6bb5\u6570\u636e\u7684\u8003\u91cf\uff0c\u800c\u589e\u957f\u9ed1\u5ba2<\/a>\u5c31\u662f\u8981\u4f60\u6210\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u61c2\u4ea7\u54c1\u8fd0\u8425\u3001\u5e02\u573a\u8425\u9500\u3001\u6e20\u9053\u63a8\u5e7f\u3001\u5546\u4e1a\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u5168\u65b9\u4f4d\u589e\u957f\u578b\u4eba\u624d\uff1b<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jeff Bezons\u7ecf\u5e38\u88ab\u95ee\u5230\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u3001\u4e5f\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u90fd\u9700\u8981\u95ee\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u662f\uff1a\u201c\u672a\u676510\u5e74\u5c06\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u4ec0\u4e48\u53d8\u5316\uff1f\u201d \u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u975e\u5e38\u6df1\u523b\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e16\u754c\u53d8\u5316\u592a\u5feb\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u73b0\u5728\u505a\u51fa\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u5c06\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":4211,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[194],"tags":[835,596,833,834,832,836],"special":[],"class_list":["post-4210","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-model","tag-835","tag-596","tag-833","tag-834","tag-832","tag-836","entry"],"views":108195,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.growthhk.cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4210","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.growthhk.cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.growthhk.cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.growthhk.cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.growthhk.cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4210"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.growthhk.cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4210\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.growthhk.cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4211"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.growthhk.cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4210"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.growthhk.cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4210"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.growthhk.cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4210"},{"taxonomy":"special","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.growthhk.cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/special?post=4210"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}