{"id":8977,"date":"2018-02-02T23:23:10","date_gmt":"2018-02-02T15:23:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.growthhk.cn\/?p=8977"},"modified":"2018-02-02T23:24:30","modified_gmt":"2018-02-02T15:24:30","slug":"%e5%8d%83%e8%81%8a%e5%be%ae%e8%af%be%e5%88%b7%e5%b1%8f%e7%9a%84%e8%83%8c%e5%90%8e%ef%bc%8c%e6%9c%89%e4%b8%80%e4%b8%aa%e7%a5%9e%e7%a7%98%e7%9a%84%e5%9b%a0%e5%ad%90%ef%bc%9ak6-58","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.growthhk.cn\/cgo\/8977.html","title":{"rendered":"\u5343\u804a\u5fae\u8bfe\u5237\u5c4f\u7684\u80cc\u540e\uff0c\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u795e\u79d8\u7684\u56e0\u5b50\uff1aK=6.58"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u5468\u4e09\u5f53\u5929\u4e0b\u5348\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u63d0\u524d\u6536\u5230\u4e86\u5343\u804a\u7684\u88c2\u53d8\u9080\u8bf7\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u9884\u611f\u5230\u8fd9\u4e2a\u9760\u201c\u4f17\u5305\u88c2\u53d8\u201d\u8bfe\u7a0b\u4e00\u5b9a\u4f1a\u88ab\u5c01\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u60f3\u501f\u673a\u56f4\u89c2\u6536\u96c6\u70b9\u6570\u636e\u3002\u6bd5\u7adf\uff0c\u4e0a\u6b21\u6df1\u5ea6\u8fd0\u8425\u7cbe\u9009\u56e2\u961f\u64cd\u76d8\u7684\u7f51\u6613\u8bfe\u7a0b\u5df2\u7ecf\u56e0\u4e3a\u591a\u7ea7\u5206\u9500\u548c\u8fc7\u5f3a\u7684\u5237\u5c4f\u80fd\u529b\u800c\u906d\u5230\u4e86\u5c01\u6740\uff0c\u800c\u5f53\u65f6\u662f\u8bfe\u7a0b\u5206\u9500<\/a><\/span>\u542f\u52a812\u5c0f\u65f6\u540e\u624d\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u5c01\u6740\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u6b21\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u5c31\u662f\u63a2\u7d22\u5237\u5c4f\u88c2\u53d8\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u539f\u7406\uff0c\u627e\u5230\u75c5\u6bd2\u8425\u9500\u7684\u5171\u6027\u89c4\u5f8b\u548c\u6570\u636e\u652f\u6491\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5b9e\u9a8c\u80cc\u666f\uff1a<\/h1>\n
1. 1\u670831\u65e5\u4e0b\u5348\u4e94\u70b9\uff0c \u589e\u957f\u9ed1\u76d2<\/a>\u67d0\u4e2a\u5c0f\u7fa4\u4e2d\u6709\u4eba\u7206\u51fa\u4e86\u5982\u4e0b\u622a\u56fe\u3002\u7136\u540e\u6211\u4e3b\u52a8\u8981\u6c42\u4e0a\u8f66\uff0c\u4e8e\u662f\u5c31\u88ab\u62c9\u5230\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e2a\u201c\u6781\u9650\u6311\u6218\u88c2\u53d8\u8bfe\u7a0bKOL\u4f5c\u6218\u7fa4\u201d\u91cc\u3002<\/p>\n
$\"\"$
\u6781\u9650\u6311\u6218\u88c2\u53d8\u8bfe\u7a0bKOL\u4f5c\u6218\u7fa4<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\u7d27\u63a5\u7740\uff0c\u6211\u770b\u4e86\u4e0b\u8bfe\u7a0b\u63cf\u8ff0\u548cpdf\uff0c\u611f\u89c9\u8fd8\u662f\u6709\u5b66\u4e60\u4e00\u4e0b\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u3002\u4e8e\u662f\u51b3\u5b9a\u63a8\u5e7f\u4e00\u6ce2\u8be5\u8bfe\u7a0b\uff0c\u987a\u4fbf\u6536\u96c6\u4e00\u4e0b\u6570\u636e\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u79cd\u91cf\u7ea7\u6709\u9884\u8c0b\u7684\u4f17\u5305\u8425\u9500\uff0c\u6211\u9884\u611f\u4eca\u5e74\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5f88\u591a\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n
$\"\"$ <\/p>\n
2. \u57286\u70b9\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u8bfe\u7a0b\u4e0a\u7ebf\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u552e\u4ef7\u53ea\u67091\u5143\u3002\u636e\u6211\u89c2\u6d4b\uff0c\u5728\u6539\u4e3a49\u5143\u524d\uff0c\u5df2\u7ecf\u67095000\u4eba\u63091\u5143\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u62a5\u540d\u4e86\uff0c\u8bf4\u660e\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u6210\u767e\u4e0a\u5343\u7684\u4eba\u5df2\u7ecf\u88ab\u62c9\u4e0a\u4f17\u5305\u5206\u9500\u7684\u8f66\u4e86\u3002\uff08\u5343\u804a\u7684\u4e0a\u8bfe\u4eba\u6570\u662f\u6709\u6c34\u5206\u7684\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5b9e\u9645\u4ed8\u8d39\u4eba\u6570\u4e00\u5b9a\u662f\u8fdc\u8fdc\u5c0f\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e2a\u503c\u7684\uff09<\/p>\n
$\"\"$ <\/p>\n
3. \u57286\u70b955\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u8bfe\u7a0b\u4ef7\u683c\u5c31\u5df2\u7ecf\u6539\u4e3a49\u4e86\uff0c\u6211\u57286\u70b959\u8f6c\u53d1\u4e86\u6d77\u62a5\u3002\u6211\u7684\u670b\u53cb\u5708\u5927\u6982\u67091200\u4e2a\u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u6587\u7ae0\u4e3b\u52a8\u52a0\u6211\u7684\u670b\u53cb\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u7cbe\u51c6\u7684\u53d7\u4f17\u3002\u7136\u540e\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a3\u5206\u949f\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u626b\u7801\u4e70\u8bfe\u7684\u670b\u53cb\uff0c20\u5206\u949f\u540e\u5c31\u6ca1\u4eba\u7528\u6211\u7684\u670b\u53cb\u5708\u9080\u8bf7\u5361\u4e70\u4e86\uff0c\u6bd5\u7adf\u5f53\u65f6\u6d77\u62a5\u5df2\u7ecf\u5168\u9762\u5237\u5c4f\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n
$\"\"$ <\/p>\n
\u4e00\u5171\u6210\u4ea47\u5355\uff0c\u6bcf\u535534.3\u5143\u6536\u76ca\uff0c\u5e76\u672a\u5f62\u62102\u7ea7\u5206\u9500\u3002<\/p>\n
4. 7\u70b932\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u53d1\u4e86\u5343\u804a\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u63a8\u9001\u6587\u7ae0\uff1a\u5343\u804aCEO\u4eb2\u81ea\u5f00\u8bb2\uff1a\u88c2\u53d8\u4f20\u64ad\u4e0e\u6307\u6570\u589e\u957f\u7684\u79d8\u8bc0\u3002\uff08\u8f6f\u6587\u7528\u7684\u5b98\u65b9\u7684\uff09<\/p>\n
\u6bd5\u7adf\u8bfe\u7a0b\u770b\u4e0a\u53bb\u8fd8\u662f\u5305\u88c5\u7684\u4e0d\u9519\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u4e14CEO\u90fd\u8bf7\u51fa\u6765\u4e86\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u503c\u5f97\u5b66\u4e60\u4e00\u4e0b\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n
\u516c\u4f17\u53f7\u53d1\u6587\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5927\u6982\u4e00\u5206\u949f\u5c31\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u6210\u5355\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u6210\u4e868\u5355\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u5927\u6982\u4e00\u5171300-400\u6587\u7ae0\u9605\u8bfb\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4e07\u4e07\u6ca1\u60f3\u5230\uff0c\u516c\u4f17\u53f7\u53d1\u658710\u5206\u949f\u540e\uff0c\u8bfe\u7a0b\u5c31\u88ab\u5c01\u4e86\u3002\u603b\u5237\u5c4f\u65f6\u95f4\u4e0d\u8d85\u8fc750\u5206\u949f\uff0c\u770b\u6765\u817e\u8baf\u8fd9\u6b21\u7684\u9884\u8b66\u90a3\u662f\u76f8\u5f53\u4e4b\u5feb\u554a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e00\u5171\u6323\u4e86514.5\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n
$\"\"$ <\/p>\n
\u5343\u804a\u5728\u88ab\u5c01\u540e\uff0c\u7ed9\u4e70\u8bfe\u7684\u670b\u53cb\u9000\u8fd8\u4e86\u6240\u6709\u8bfe\u7a0b\u8d39\u7528\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u8bfe\u7a0b\u4e5f\u53d8\u6210\u514d\u8d39\u7684\u4e86\uff0c\u5206\u9500\u7684\u94b1\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u6210\u529f\u63d0\u4e86\u51fa\u6765~\u6709\u5174\u8da3\u7684\u670b\u53cb\u8fd8\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u53bb\u542c\u8bfe\u7684\uff01\u53ef\u601c\u7684\u5343\u804a\u7b97\u662f\u88ab\u6211\u4eec\u8585\u4e86\u4e00\u6ce2\u7f8a\u6bdb\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5206\u6790\uff1a<\/h1>\n
\u6211\u4eec\u9996\u5148\u6765\u56de\u987e\u4e00\u4e0b\u75c5\u6bd2\u7cfb\u6570K\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u516c\u5f0f\uff1a<\/p>\n
K=IConv<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
I\uff1aInvitation\uff0c\u5373\u6bcf\u4e2a\u7528\u6237\u53d1\u9001\u7684\u9080\u8bf7\u6570\u91cf\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u5206\u5e03\u5bc6\u5ea6\uff08distribution\uff09<\/p>\n
Conv\uff1aConversion rate\uff0c\u5373\u6bcf\u4e2a\u9080\u8bf7\u6210\u529f\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u611f\u67d3\u5f3a\u5ea6\uff08infection\uff09<\/p>\n
\u76f4\u89c2\u7684\u6765\u89e3\u91ca\uff0cK\u4ee3\u8868\u4e86\u6bcf\u4e2a\u73b0\u6709\u7528\u6237\u80fd\u591f\u5e26\u6765\u591a\u5c11\u4e2a\u65b0\u7528\u6237\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u6d3b\u52a8\u5438\u5f15\u4e8610\u4e2a\u7528\u6237\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u7528\u6237\u53d1\u900110\u4e2a\u9080\u8bf7\u7ed9\u597d\u53cb\uff08I\uff09\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u9080\u8bf7\u6210\u529f\u7387\u4e3a20%\uff08Conv\uff09\uff0c\u90a3\u8fd9\u6b21\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684K=1020%=2\uff0c\u5373\u6bcf\u4e2a\u73b0\u6709\u7528\u6237\u53ef\u4ee5\u6210\u529f\u5e26\u67652\u4e2a\u65b0\u7528\u6237\u3002\u7ecf\u8fc7\u4e00\u8f6e\u4e8c\u6b21\u4f20\u64ad\u540e\uff0c\u4f60\u4f1a\u65b0\u589e10K=20\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6839\u636e\u591a\u65b9\u9762\u4e86\u89e3\uff0c\u8fd9\u6b21\u6d3b\u52a8\u8fd8\u662f\u4ee5\u5fae\u4fe1\u7fa4\/\u670b\u53cb\u5708\u7684\u6d77\u62a5\u4f20\u64ad\u4e3a\u4e3b\uff0c\u516c\u4f17\u53f7\u7684\u8f6c\u5316\u548c\u4f20\u64ad\u53ef\u4ee5\u5ffd\u7565\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ea\u8003\u8651\u670b\u53cb\u5708\/\u7fa4\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\u6548\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4ece\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6570\u636e\u6765\u770b\uff1a<\/p>\n
\n
\u670b\u53cb\u5708+\u7fa4\u4eba\u6570\uff1a1500\u4eba<\/li>\n
\u8d2d\u4e70\u91cf\uff1a7\u4eba<\/li>\n
\u8f6c\u5316\u7387\uff1a7\/1500=0.46%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
\u5982\u679c\u4ece\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u51fa\u53d1\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e00\u773c\u5c31\u80fd\u770b\u51faK=7\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u5e26\u6765\u4e867\u4e2a\u65b0\u7528\u6237\u561b\uff01\u540c\u65f6I=1500\uff0cConv=0.47%\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u663e\u7136\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6d3b\u52a8\u4e0d\u4ec5\u53ea\u6709alan\u4e00\u4eba\u53c2\u4e0e\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u628a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u89c4\u5f8b\u5f3a\u884c\u52a0\u5230\u5176\u5b83\u75c5\u6bd2\u4f20\u64ad\u8005\u7684\u8eab\u4e0a\uff0c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6709\u70b9\u4e0d\u592a\u59a5\u5f53\uff0c\u6bd5\u7adfalan\u53ea\u662f\u4e2a\u4f8b\u3002<\/p>\n
\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u6839\u636e\u6574\u4f53\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u6765\u9006\u5411\u63a8\u5bfc\u5343\u804a\u5fae\u8bfe\u7684K\u503c\uff0c\u4ee5\u8861\u91cf\u5b83\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u529b\u5ea6\u548c\u75c5\u6bd2\u6548\u5e94\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u4e0d\u559c\u6b22\u505a\u6570\u5b66\u9898\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u76f4\u63a5\u7565\u8fc7\u4e0b\u9762\u7684\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u4e0d\u5f71\u54cd\u7ed3\u8bba\uff01<\/p>\n
\u73b0\u5728\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5e76\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u5e73\u5747\u6bcf\u4e2a\u7528\u6237\u53d1\u9001\u4e86\u591a\u5c11\u9080\u8bf7\uff0c\u66f4\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u77e5\u9053\u8f6c\u5316\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n
\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u8be5\u7528\u4ec0\u4e48\u65b9\u5f0f\u6765\u63a8\u5bfcK\u503c\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n
\u6211\u4eec\u5148\u6765\u770b\u4e0b\u5b8c\u6574\u7684 \u75c5\u6bd2\u4f20\u64ad\u516c\u5f0f<\/a><\/span>\uff0c\u5b66\u751f\u7269\u7684\u4eba\u5e94\u8be5\u90fd\u4e0d\u964c\u751f\uff1a<\/p>\n
$\"\"$
\u75c5\u6bd2\u4f20\u64ad\u516c\u5f0f<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\n
Custs(t)\uff1acustomers after time \u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u540e\u7684\u603b\u7528\u6237\u91cf<\/li>\n
Custs(0): initial customers \u521d\u59cb\u7528\u6237\u91cf<\/li>\n
K\uff1aviral coefficient \u4e0a\u9762\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u75c5\u6bd2\u7cfb\u6570<\/li>\n
t: time \u75c5\u6bd2\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\u603b\u65f6\u95f4<\/li>\n
ct: cycle time \u6bcf\u4e00\u8f6e\u611f\u67d3\u5468\u671f\u82b1\u8d39\u7684\u65f6\u95f4<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
\u4ece\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u622a\u56fe\u4e2d\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6781\u9650\u4f5c\u6218\u7fa4\u4e2d\u6709169\u4eba – \u8fd9\u4e9b\u5c31\u662f\u79cd\u5b50\u7528\u6237\u4e86\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u7b2c\u4e00\u6279\u75c5\u6bd2\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u8005\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u65b9\u4fbf\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u6309170\u4eba\u6765\u8ba1\u7b97\u3002<\/p>\n
\u540c\u6837\uff0c\u6839\u636ealan\u5728\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\u6536\u96c6\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u8f6e\u611f\u67d3\u5468\u671f\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\uff08ct\uff09\u662f20\u5206\u949f\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c20\u5206\u949f\u5de6\u53f3\uff0calan\u6210\u529f\u611f\u67d3\u4e867\u4e2a\u4eba\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u611f\u67d3\u57fa\u672c\u7ed3\u675f\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u65b0\u7684\u4eba\u88ab\u62c9\u8fdb\u6765\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u73b0\u5728\u5c31\u5047\u8bbe\u8fd9170\u4eba\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\u75c5\u6bd2\u4f20\u64ad\u90fd\u7b26\u5408\u8fd9\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u89c4\u5f8b\uff0c\u5373\u5e73\u5747ct\u662f20\u5206\u949f\u3002<\/p>\n
\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u5343\u804a\u7684\u6d3b\u52a8\u5728\u4e0a\u7ebf50\u5206\u949f\u4e4b\u540e\u5c31\u906d\u5230\u5c01\u6740 – \u90a3\u75c5\u6bd2\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\u603b\u65f6\u95f4\uff08t\uff09\u5c31\u662f50\u5206\u949f\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u8fd9\u6b21\u6d3b\u52a8\u5927\u7ea6\u4f1a\u7ecf\u5386t\/ct=2.5\u4e2a\u611f\u67d3\u5468\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n
$\"\"$ <\/p>\n
\u8fd9\u662f\u5728\u5343\u804a\u88ab\u5c01\u6740\u524d\u5b9a\u683c\u7684\u4e00\u5f20\u622a\u56fe\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u670994164\u6b21\u5b66\u4e60\u3002\u4e0a\u6587\u4e2d\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u75c5\u6bd2\u7206\u53d1\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u5c31\u67095000\u6b21\u5b66\u4e60\u4e86\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u8fd9\u91cc\u6700\u7ec8\u901a\u8fc7\u75c5\u6bd2\u4f20\u64ad\u589e\u957f\u7684\u201c\u5b66\u4e60\u6b21\u6570\u201d\u5c31\u662f94164-5000=89164\u3002\u5927\u5bb6\u8bf7\u6ce8\u610f\uff0c\u201c\u5b66\u4e60\u6b21\u6570\u201d\u5e76\u4e0d\u4ee3\u8868\u5b9e\u9645\u53c2\u4e0e\u4eba\u6570\uff0c\u8fd9\u7c7b\u4f3cUV\u548cPV\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u6839\u636e\u6211\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6765\u770b\uff0cPV:UV\u5927\u7ea6\u662f4\uff1a1\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u4eec\u8fd9\u91cc\u5047\u8bbe\u5343\u804a\u8bfe\u7a0b\u7684\u6700\u7ec8\u62a5\u540d\u4eba\u6570\u662f89164\/4=22291\u4eba<\/p>\n
\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u628a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u503c\u5e26\u5165\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u516c\u5f0f:<\/p>\n
\n
22291=170(k^(2.5+1)-1)\/(k-1)<\/li>\n
131=k^3.5-1\/(k-1)<\/li>\n
131k-131=k^3.5-1<\/li>\n
131k-k^3.5=130<\/li>\n
\u53cd\u63a8K=6.58<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
\uff08\u597d\u5427\uff0c\u522b\u95ee\u6211\u600e\u4e48\u7b97\u7684\uff0c\u53cd\u6b63\u4e0d\u662f\u7528\u7b14\u7b97\u7684\uff09<\/p>\n
\u597d\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u6574\u4f53\u6837\u672c\u7684K\u503c\u8ddfalan\u72ec\u7acb\u7684K\u503c\u5341\u5206\u63a5\u8fd1\uff0c\u7b97\u662f\u4fa7\u9762\u5370\u8bc1\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\u5176\u5b83\u4eba\u7684I\u548cConv\u4e0ealan\u4e5f\u6bd4\u8f83\u63a5\u8fd1\u3002<\/p>\n
$\"\"$ <\/p>\n
\u6211\u4eec\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u5982\u679cK=1\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u662f\u4e0d\u6e29\u4e0d\u706b\u7684\u7ebf\u6027\u4f20\u64ad\uff0cK<1\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u662f\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u3002\u5f53K>1\u65f6\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u75c5\u6bd2\u4f20\u64ad – \u8fd9\u65f6\u5019\uff0cK\u6bcf\u589e\u52a01\uff0c\u589e\u957f\u7684\u7528\u6237\u91cf\u5c31\u80fd\u5f97\u5230\u6307\u6570\u7ea7\u7684\u63d0\u9ad8\u3002K=6.58\uff0c\u5176\u5b9e\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f88\u6050\u6016\u7684\u6570\u5b57\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\u6bcf\u4e2a\u7528\u6237\u5c06\u5e26\u67656.58\u4e2a\u65b0\u7528\u6237\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8fd9\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u6982\u5ff5\u5462\uff1f\u6211\u4eec\u56de\u5fc6\u4e00\u4e0b\u53bb\u5e74\u6700\u6d41\u884c\u7684\u670d\u52a1\u53f7\/\u4efb\u52a1\u5b9d\u88c2\u53d8 – \u5f53\u4f60\u626b\u63cf\u4e00\u5f20\u6d77\u62a5\uff0c\u5173\u6ce8\u4e00\u4e2a\u670d\u52a1\u53f7\u65f6\uff0c\u5b83\u600e\u4e48\u63d0\u793a\u4f60\u7684\uff1f<\/p>\n
\u201d\u9080\u8bf7\u4e09\u4f4d\u597d\u53cb\u626b\u7801\u5373\u53ef\u83b7\u5f97\u514d\u8d39\u8bfe\u7a0b\u201c<\/p>\n
\u7406\u8bba\u4e0a\uff0cK\u503c\u4e00\u5b9a\u662f\u5c0f\u4e8e3\u7684\uff08\u56e0\u4e3a\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u6240\u6709\u7528\u6237\u90fd\u80fd100%\u5e26\u67653\u4e2a\u65b0\u7528\u6237\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n
\u56de\u5934\u6765\u770b\u5343\u804a\u8fd9\u6b21\u6d3b\u52a8\uff0cK\u503c\u662f\u4f20\u7edf\u88c2\u53d8\u76842\u500d\u591a\uff0c\u5176\u5a01\u529b\u53ef\u89c1\u4e00\u6591\uff01<\/p>\n
\u6211\u4eec\u518d\u6765\u505a\u4e00\u4e2a\u6781\u7aef\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u5bf9\u5343\u804a\u7684\u8fd9\u6b21\u6d3b\u52a8\u4e0d\u52a0\u4ee5\u9650\u5236\uff0c\u4f1a\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u540e\u679c\uff1f<\/p>\n
\uff08\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u4e0d\u559c\u6b22\u505a\u6570\u5b66\u9898\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u76f4\u63a5\u7565\u8fc7\u4e0b\u9762\u7684\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u4e0d\u5f71\u54cd\u7ed3\u8bba\uff01\uff09<\/p>\n
\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5047\u8bbe\u7406\u60f3\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u6574\u4f53\u4f20\u64ad\u89c4\u5f8b\u4fdd\u6301\u4e0d\u53d8\uff0c\u5373K=6.58\uff0cct=20\uff0c\u4e14\u6240\u6709\u5fae\u4fe1\u7528\u6237\u90fd\u6709\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u5174\u8da3\u53c2\u4e0e\u6b64\u6d3b\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u5fae\u4fe1\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\u670910\u4ebf\u6d3b\u8dc3\u7528\u6237\u3002<\/p>\n
\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u8fd9\u6b21\u4ece170\u4eba\u5f00\u59cb\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u7ee7\u7eed\u4e0b\u53bb\u3002<\/p>\n
\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u628a\u4e0a\u8ff0\u6570\u636e\u5e26\u5165\u75c5\u6bd2\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6765\u6c42\u603b\u65f6\u95f4t\uff1a<\/p>\n
\n
1000000000=170(6.85^((t\/20)+1)-1)\/(6.85-1)<\/li>\n
1000000000=170(6.85^((t\/20)+1)-1)\/5.85<\/li>\n
34482758=(6.85^((t\/20)+1)-1)<\/li>\n
34482759=6.85^(t\/20+1)<\/li>\n
t=160.392<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\uff0c\u5728\u6781\u5ea6\u975e\u5e38\u5b8c\u7f8e\u7406\u60f3\u5047\u8bbe\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5343\u804a\u7684\u8fd9\u6b21\u6d3b\u52a8\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728160\u5206\u949f\u5185 – \u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u4e0d\u52303\u5c0f\u65f6\uff0c\u653b\u9677\u6240\u6709\u5fae\u4fe1\u6d3b\u8dc3\u7528\u6237\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4f60\u89c9\u5f97\u96be\u4ee5\u7f6e\u4fe1\u5417\uff1f\u8bf7\u60f3\u60f3\u57c3\u535a\u62c9\u75c5\u6bd2\uff0c\u6d41\u611f\u75c5\u6bd2\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5b83\u4eec\u4e0d\u52a0\u63a7\u5236\u4f1a\u600e\u6837\uff1f\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u89c4\u5f8b\u662f\u4e00\u6837\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n
$\"\"$ <\/p>\n
(\u4ece\u56fe\u4e0a\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\uff0c\u628ak=6.58\u5e26\u5165\u516c\u5f0f – 3\u5c0f\u65f6\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u611f\u67d325\u4ebf\u4eba\uff09<\/p>\n
\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6\u5206\u5272\u7ebf\u6bd5\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u8bfb\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u56de\u6765\u4e86<\/p>\n
\u73b0\u5728\uff0c\u4f60\u77e5\u9053\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u5fae\u4fe1\u8981\u5c01\u6740\u5b83\u4e86\u5417\uff1f<\/p>\n
\u6839\u636e\u6211\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u63a8\u6d4b\uff0c\u5fae\u4fe1\u7684\u6570\u636e\u7cfb\u7edf\u91cc\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6709\u4e00\u5957\u7b97\u6cd5\u5728\u65f6\u523b\u76d1\u6d4b\u5404\u4e2a\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684K\u503c\uff08\u57fa\u4e8e\u57df\u540d\u6216\u8005\u5176\u4ed6\u7f16\u53f7\uff09\u3002\u5148\u4e0d\u8003\u8651\u4e3e\u62a5\u7b49\u4e3b\u52a8\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u67d0\u4e2a\u57df\u540d\u7684K\u503c\u7a81\u7136\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fa\u5b9a\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u4e14ct\u65f6\u95f4\u8f83\u77ed\uff0c\u5fae\u4fe1\u5c31\u4f1a\u5728\u4eba\u6570\u8fbe\u5230\u67d0\u4e2a\u9608\u503c\u6216\u8005\u5176\u5b83\u6761\u4ef6\u6ee1\u8db3\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u5c01\u6740\u8fd9\u4e2a\u57df\u540d\u3002\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6d3b\u52a8\u65b9\u8fdb\u884c\u79ef\u6781\u4ea4\u6d89\u5e76\u4e3b\u52a8\u51cf\u4f4eK\u503c\uff0c\u89e3\u5c01\u4e5f\u662f\u60c5\u7406\u4e4b\u4e2d\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u5c40\u9650\u6027\uff1a<\/h1>\n
\u770b\u5230\u8fd9\u91cc\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u9ad8\u624b\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u63d0\u51fa\u8d28\u7591\u4e86\uff1a\u8fd9\u4e48\u8ba1\u7b97\u51c6\u786e\u5417\uff1f<\/p>\n
\u5f88\u4e0d\u5e78\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e48\u8ba1\u7b97\u662f\u4e0d\u51c6\u786e\u7684\uff0c\u53ea\u80fd\u5b9a\u6027\u800c\u4e0d\u80fd\u5b9a\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6211\u4eec\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5b9e\u9a8c\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u662f\u5728\u4e00\u79cd\u7edd\u5bf9\u7406\u60f3\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u59a8\u8fd9\u4e48\u6765\u7c7b\u6bd4\uff1a\u8fd9\u662f\u4e2a\u7269\u7406\u5b9e\u9a8c\uff0c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6761\u4ef6\u662f\u7edd\u5bf9\u96f6\u5ea6\u3002\u5927\u5bb6\u90fd\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u5206\u5b50\u8fd0\u52a8\u7684\u89c4\u5f8b\uff0c\u7edd\u5bf9\u96f6\u5ea6\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u8fbe\u5230\u7684\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7ed3\u679c\u65e0\u6cd5\u5728\u771f\u5b9e\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\u5b58\u5728\u3002<\/p>\n
\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ea\u80fd\u4ece\u4e2d\u770b\u51fa\u4e00\u5b9a\u8d8b\u52bf\u548c\u89c4\u5f8b\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6570\u503c\u662f\u6ca1\u6709\u5b9e\u9645\u8861\u91cf\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5728\u771f\u5b9e\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff1a<\/p>\n
1. \u4e0d\u8bba\u662f\u591a\u4e48\u5438\u5f15\u4eba\u7684\u6d3b\u52a8\uff0c\u5176\u75c5\u6bd2\u7cfb\u6570K\u3001\u75c5\u6bd2\u5468\u671fct\u603b\u662f\u5728\u8870\u51cf\u7684\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u63a8\u79fb\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u5c06\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u5f31\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u7528\u6237\u62c9\u5230\u7684\u65b0\u4eba\u4e5f\u4f1a\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u5c11\uff0c\u65b0\u7528\u6237\u53c2\u4e0e\u6d3b\u52a8\u6240\u6d88\u8017\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u4e5f\u4f1a\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u4e45\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u75c5\u6bd2\u4f20\u64ad\u90fd\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u65e0\u9650\u8fdb\u884c\u4e0b\u53bb\uff0cK\u503c\u6700\u7ec8\u5c0f\u4e8e1\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u589e\u957f\u91cf\u8d8b\u8fd1\u4e8e0\u3002<\/p>\n
2. \u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e0d\u540c\u4eba\u7fa4\u5c5e\u6027\uff0c\u5176K\u503c\u4e5f\u662f\u5927\u4e0d\u76f8\u540c\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5047\u8bbe\u6240\u6709\u4eba\u8eab\u4e0a\u7684\u7cfb\u6570K\u90fd\u548c\u521d\u59cb170\u540d\u79cd\u5b50\u7528\u6237\u76f8\u540c – \u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u4e0d\u73b0\u5b9e\u7684\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9170\u4eba\u662f\u7ecf\u8fc7\u5343\u804a\u6311\u9009\u7684\u3001\u50cfalan\u4e00\u6837\u81ea\u5e26\u6d41\u91cf\u7684\u4eba\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u666e\u901a\u4eba\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u670b\u53cb\u5708+\u7fa4\u7684\u4eba\u6570\u5f80\u5f80\u57281000\u4eba\u4ee5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5f88\u96be\u628a\u6d77\u62a5\u63a8\u9001\u7ed91500\u4e2a\u4eba\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4I<1000\u3002<\/p>\n
3.\u7531\u4e8e\u5176\u4e2a\u4eba\u80cc\u4e66\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff08\u6bd4\u5982\u4e00\u4e2a\u5929\u5929\u6652\u5a03\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u7a81\u7136\u53d1\u4e00\u5f20\u5206\u9500\u6d77\u62a5\uff0c\u5c31\u5f88\u96be\u6709\u670b\u53cb\u4f1a\u4e70\u8d26\u3002\u4f46alan\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u81ea\u5a92\u4f53\u4eba\uff0c\u670b\u53cb\u4eec\u5c31\u5f88\u4fe1\u5f97\u8fc7\uff09\uff0c\u8f6c\u5316\u7387Conv\u4e5f\u8fdc\u8fdc\u4f4e\u4e8e0.47%\u3002\u540c\u7406\uff0c\u5176ct\u4e5f\u4f1a\u5448\u73b0\u5dee\u5f02\u5316\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7efc\u4e0a\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u5728\u5b9e\u9645\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff1a<\/p>\n
1.K\u5c06\u5448\u73b0\u4e00\u4e2a\u9012\u51cf\u7684\u66f2\u7ebf\uff0c\u7b26\u5408\u65f6\u95f4\u51fd\u6570K(t)<\/p>\n
2.ct\u4e5f\u4f1a\u968f\u65f6\u95f4\u9012\u51cf\uff0c\u7b26\u5408\u65f6\u95f4\u51fd\u6570ct(t)<\/p>\n
3.\u4e0d\u540c\u4eba\u7fa4P1\u3001P2….\uff0c\u5176K\u503c\u548cct\u7b26\u5408\u51fd\u6570K(P), ct(P)<\/p>\n
\uff08\u5176\u5b83\u6761\u4ef6\u5f85\u8865\u5145\uff09<\/p>\n
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